Why Are the Favorites Struggling?

This time, I’m not watching the World Cup just for the scores.

I’m looking at the matches from a different perspective.

Because what we see on the field is not just football; it is a vivid simulation of the new era of competition.

The most striking signal so far is this:

The favorites are still strong, but they are no longer as comfortable as they used to be.

In the past, major teams stepped onto the field as if they naturally owned the game.

They had the history.

They had the brand power.

They had the star players.

They had the psychological advantage.

But something different is happening today.

Teams once considered smaller are no longer stepping onto the field simply to resist.

They are better organized.

They play with greater courage.

They defend more compactly.They transition faster.

They press more intelligently.

And most importantly, they now have game models and ideas of their own.

It reminds me of the business world.

Large companies once entered markets with a natural advantage as well.

Large budgets.

Strong brands.

Extensive distribution networks.

Experienced management teams.

Significant human capital.

Established customer bases.

But today, those advantages are no longer enough on their own.

Because smaller players are no longer the same.

They can access technology.

They can leverage data.

They can understand customers more closely.

They can make decisions faster.

They can focus on niche opportunities.

They can create innovative solutions with fewer resources.

In other words, the baseline of competition is rising.

To me, the most important concept of our time is this:

The democratization of performance.

Knowledge is no longer concentrated in the hands of the few.

Tactics are no longer an exclusive advantage of the favorites.

Data is no longer a weapon reserved for large organizations.

Confidence is no longer owned only by established brands.

That is why the favorites are struggling.

Because they are no longer facing “weaker competitors.”

They are facing competitors who are better prepared, more informed, hungrier, more agile, and more confident.

The same thing is happening in business.

Large banks are being challenged by fintech companies.

Traditional automotive giants are being challenged by software-driven entrants.

Major retailers are competing with niche micro-brands.

Large consulting firms are facing AI-native boutique teams.

Established educational institutions are competing with independent content creators.

Because in the new world, scale still matters—but learning speed matters more.

Being large is still an advantage.

But it is no longer a guarantee.

For the favorites, the biggest risk is not simply underestimating competitors.

The real risk is relying too heavily on yesterday’s success models.

Because past success can sometimes make it harder to understand today’s game.

The World Cup is telling us something important:

In the new era of competition, the winners will not be those who were strongest in the past, but those who understand today’s game the fastest and redesign themselves accordingly.

I’m not just watching football.

I’m reading the new nature of competition.